Daily Revort China

FBIS-CHI-91-016 CONTENTS 24 January 1991

NOTICE TO READERS: An * indicates material not previously disseminated in electronic form.

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

General NN l GOONER Views Gil SOURtIOR [ATNTUA) ......0000000000sceeesccccsossccessescessesoressssosocesesessesessovesonsee | ID cari caiearsetenetn terrane eareeeenenrNEnN | Says Muslims Support Gulf Stance /ZHONGGUO XINWEN SHE] o........ccc.ccccccccccceeeeeseeeeeees l Reiterates Sino-British Joint Terms /ZHONGGUO XINWEN SHE] ...........ccccccccccceeeeeereeeeeee 2 Article Evaluates PRC Role in Gulf Crisis /Hong Kong WEN WEI PO 23 Jan] ..........cccccccccceseeeeees 2 Editorial Urges Immediate Peace Efforts /Hong Keng TA KUNG PAO 24 Jan] o..ccccccccccceccceeceseeeeees 3 Embassy Area in Beijing Heavily Guarded /Hong Kong WEN WEI PO 24 Jan] o....cccccccccecceeeeeeees 4 Foreign Ministry Protests French Visit to Taiwan SEREUREUTY GUUERGED GPU UEEIED EERIE UT UUIEY FO DOI onsveccccceseccccsessocccssccesesesecesesesvenevensssenssesessussessessosss 5 Article on Asia-Pacific Political Situation [Hong Kong LIAQWANG OVERSEAS EDITION 14 Jan] .............:..cccssccssscsesssssssssssssssscssscsessessseess 5 PRC Attends UN Confidence-Building Meeting /XINHUA] ................cccccccccccecssseecseeeeneeeeeeeeceseeeeeees 7 United States & Canada Spokesman Concerned Over U.S. Textile Quotas SEETTEEEEEY GUEDGET COV EUEEEEAED ERIDUEUEITY 0 GON ccccesccesccscceseccsscesnsesorevseneseesssossecoseesnescnseccocsqonsesens 7 U.S. National Security Adviser Meets Huang Hua (XINHUA) o.........cccccccccccccesscesseesseenseeeneeeeeeeeensees 8 U.S. President Confident in Gulf Operation /XINFIUA] ..............cccccsessccsscsscossssscsesssssscssssssssesessseosess 8 Ty PGs CPE IED | setuneenpernevensscnenesenvensecenveqnennenesnnninneneneen suneanenanniannnnianten 8

Northeast Asia

Jiang Zemin, DPRK’s Kim Yong-sun Meet /RENMIN RIBAO 17 Jan] ooccccccccccccccccccescecceeeeseeeeeeneees 8 Mongolian President Urges Restraint in Gulf War /XINHUA] o........cccccccccccccccccecceeesseeenseeeeeeeenneeenes 9

Southeast Asia & Pacific

Yunnan Provincial Delegation Visits Burma [XINHUA] .00...........cccccccsscccsssseeeesseeesseeseeeeseeeeeesaeeeeeeees 9 Chen Muhua Meets Lao Parliamentary Delegation /XINHUA] o......cccccccccccccccesseesseesseeseeeeneeeeseenees 10

Near East & South Asia AINHUA Views Pakistan Reaction to Gulf Events ............cccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccssccccccscsccccesccsceeseees 10 Sub-Saharan Africa

Zimbabwe's Mugabe Meets Luo Gan, Praises Reform [XINHUA] ........cccccccccccccesseseeseeeeeseeeseeeeeoes 11

Yang Accepts Burkina Faso Envoy's Credentials (XINHUA) .0..........ccccccccccccccesseeesseeseeeeseeeeeneeeeenenens i] West Europe

‘News Analysis’: War Poses Problems for Germany /XINJIUA] ........ccccccccccsssessersceseesssereeeeseeeseeenes 1]

Loan Agreements Signed With Germany /CHINA DAILY 23 Jan] ooccccccccccccccccccccccscecesseeeeesseseeeeeeees 12

ee | ee 12

FBIS-CHI-91-016

24 January 1991 2 China Italian Parliament Official Meets Trade Group /XINHUA] 20.0...0....0.....0cccccceccceeesceeeseeeeseetseeeetsetseens 13 italy on Willingness To Develop Economic Ties (XINHUA) ...........cc2ccccccccccccccceeeeseeeeeeeeeensseeeeeees , Spain Signs $450 Million Loan Agreement [XINHUA] -................:c:cscesseseeeeeeeeeseeesseseeeeeeees voametain 13 East Europe Romanian President Iliescu Interviewed [Hong Kong LIAOWANG OVERSEAS EDITION 14 Jan] .......2....220cccccceceeceeeceeeesseeeeeeeseeeseesenseneeees 13 PRC, Albania Sign Agreements on Culture /XINHUA] .....................ccc.-ccccocssssscecccsssescssscscsssssonssesenses 15 NATIONAL AFFAIRS

Central Committee Plenum

Magazine Tells ‘Inside Story’ of Plenum /Hong Kong KUANG CHIAO CHING 16 Jan] «0.0.0.0... 16 Political & Social Teeel of Seademt Leader Wane Dan tm Recess JAFFE] ..........-0cccrscscvscesssssssssersersssencssessssssonnseaseossenes 18 Stress Faced by Activist Bao Zunxin Noted /Hong Kong TANGTAIL 19 Jan] oo..c..c.c0..cc0ccccccccseeseees 19 Beijing University Said in Party Grip /Hong Kong MING PAO 22 Jan] .............. seecinedhailidanaisecaniontel 19 Official Calls for Tight Supervision of Secrets /MINHUA] 0..........ccccccccccccesccssecesseeeeeeeseeeseeenseesseeseeens 20 Qiao Shi Meets Outstanding Public Security Units /MINHUA] ........0..00ccccccccccccceeeccesceeeeteeereeees 20 Li Xiannian Writes Names for Hubei Bridge, Hall /Wihan Radio] ..............00..00ccccccccecceeseeseesseeseees 21 Regulation on Arbitration Bodies Approved [XINHUA] .............ccccccccccccccsssceeeessseseeeeeeeenseeenrseeeeseeees 21 NPC Group Sponsors Civil Procedure Law Forum /XINHUA] o......0....c0ccccccccccccececeeesseesseesessnteeenees 21 Publication of Intellectual Rights Journal Marked /XINHU A] oo.....c.0.cccccccccccccccecceeceneccesscenseeteeeeees 22 Beijing To Step Up Selection of Reserve Cadres /Hong Kong WEN WEI PO 22 Jan] occ 23 Chen Lei Attends Memorial Service for Xin Cheng /Harbin Radio] ...............00000c00cc0cceceeseeeeeeees 23 Article on Distribution According to Work /LIAOW ANG 31 DOC] oocccccccccccccccccccccccecessceeeseeeeseeeteeeens 24 Plenum Reform, Opening Up Proposal Discussed [Hong Kong LIAOWANG OVERSEAS EDITION 14 Jan] .......0..c.cccccccccecssscesseeeessseeeeseeeesscensenneceneens 26 Journalists’ Association Conference Evaluated /Hong Kong TANGTATL 19 Jan] oocccccccccccccccccccceceees 27 I on certrrrnreincticiersanciensceinceirvitisisnneeslsselnernennaeuanertdamenntineeeeteseneseettel 28 .t.F . tC .. 7. ..... Qe 28 2, 2 | 2: 2 fF qq Te 30 Book Reporting Conditions in China Published (XINHUA) o......0..00ccccccccccccceccceeeecee seeeeseeeseeneeeeees 32

Economic & Agricultural

Spokesman Announces Foreign Trade Reforms /XINHUA] oo....c.ccccccccccccccceccccceeeeeeeeeensseeteeenseeeeeeees 32

SPUROUENES FUURSGUIREIEID, GRMCUIONG FRTNTTUAL .ncccccssnsesssscesessssessssscsrssessesssessvssssensvecsssonssasonsess 33

Li kia, DL Fe eee eran 33

Says War To Harm Trade, Investment /CHINA DAILY 24 Jan] ooccccccccccccccccccccceceecceceteeseeeeees 34 ‘Keynotes’ of Eighth Five-Year Plan Discussed /BEIJING REVIEW NO 2] ooccccccccccccccccceeceeeesetseeees 34 Individual, Private Economy Develops ‘Steadily’ /XINHUA] oo..cccccccccccccccccccccceecceeeeseseeeeenseereneeeenes 37 Advertisers Approve ‘Code of Self-Discipline? /CHINA DAILY 24 Jan] ooccccccccccccccccccccceseeeess sasdiiteds 37 Li Peng Asscsses Agricuttural Setuation [XINTIUA] ...........cccccscccsssssrcsscssscsssssssscssscsssssssscssesessscssesssess 38 Tian Jiyun Addresses Agricultural Conference /XINHUA] occcccccccccccccccccccscceeceeseseeeeenteseeneenteeeneeeens 39

REGIONAL AFFAIRS

East Region

Lu Rongjing Addresses Anhui Party on Plenum = /Hefei RAdiIO] ...........c.ccccccccccccscccesseeeseeescersessesseeees 4]

Smapects Sotomce, CeGeserial Fark PPC RAMA) ...ccccescssecsesssescssscsssssssssesssenssssseesscosesssoeseosssseess 42 Anhui's Fu Xishou Comments on Screening Companies /Hefei RAdIO] .............c0cccccceccceceseeseeeeseeees 43 Fujian Planning Work Conference Opens [Fuzhou RAdi0] ..........cccccccccccecceccceseceeeseeesseeeseeeseeseeneeneens 44 Fujian Plans To Improve Residents’ Livelihood /XINHUA] ooccccccccccccccccccccccecccceeesseeeeeerseeeeseeerseenseees 44 Jiangsu Sci-Tech Development Plan Distributed /Nanjing Radio] .........ccccccccccccceeseceetee seeeeeneeeeees 45

Jiangsu Builds Up Reserves for National Defense /RENMIN RIBAO 17 Jan] o.c.cccccccccccceeceeeceseeeees 45

FBIS-CHI-91-010

24 January 1991 3 China Shandong Makes Defense Education Universal /Jinan Radio] ..................::ccccesseecsseereeereeeeeeeeeeeeeeess 46 College Party Secretaries Study Plenum Guidelines /Jiman Radio] ...................sccscsssesseeseeeeeeeseevees 46 Shanghai CPPCC Committee Meeting Closes /Shanghai Radio] .....................cc.0cssesessseeeeeeeneeeeeeeees 47 Shanghai Courts Set Verdicts on Obscenity Charges /WEN HUI BAO 15 Jan] 0...2......cc0cccc00000+ 47

Central-South Region

Guangdong Party Studies 7th Plenum Spirit /Guangzhou Radio] ..................ccccccseeeseeeeeeeeseeeeeeeeneees 48 Guangdong To Boost Economic Ties With Hong Kong

[Hong Kong SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST 24 Jan] ..........::.:c-ccseocccsseecscseccsscsesseesssoseescssesess 48 Guangxi Firearms, Drug Smuggling Activities Cited /Hong Kong MING PAO 22 Jan] .............. 49 Deng Hongxun Addresses Hainan Party on 7th Plenum /Hatkou Radio] ..............:.ccscssseeeeeeeeeeeees 50 Hainan Court President Stresses Prostitution Ban 9 /Haikou Radi] ............22..ccccccseeseesesseeseeeeeeeeeees 51 Henan Discovers Prospective Gold Reserve [XINFTUA) ........00.<:0.csscccssscsccsssoccssssosseessessseseeceesoosesess 52 Guan Guangfu Solicits Non-CPC Opinions on Plans /Wuhan Radio] ..............:c.cc.sccssessceeeeseseenees 52 Hunan Governor Leads Inspection Group to Shenzhen /Changsha Radio] .0.........ccc00c0000000000 52

North Region

Beijing Campaigns Against Police Corruption /CHINA DAILY 23 Jan] ...........ccccccccseccseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 53 weng Gun Adgresecs Tamer NORMANS Party PICMUIT ..........:0.<.cccscrsseccessesococccssscsssossesseseosssesccosesosesons 53 I MO I: I iaisstei cree ateateataeeneecinnsneundnsaniennionnnnnedseaseusenvsanialintenniainiiis 53 Reports on Agriculture, Animal Husbandry /Holhot Radio] .............0.cccccccccecssseeeseeeeeeeeeeeees . 34 Views Construction, Transportation /Hohhot Radio] ...............cccc.cccccceceeeseeeseeees sdaniannatihanaitiith 54 Relates Township Enterprise Development /Hohhot Radio] ..................ccccccccssssesseeeseeeeeeeeeeeees 55 Calls For Raising Living Standards /Hohhot Radio] .0..............cccccccccceecceeeeseeeseesseeseeeeees seeeeeees 56

Northeast Region

He Zhukang Addresses Social Science Federation /Changchun Radio] ...............cccccccccseseeeseseeeeeeeees 56 People’s Congress Standing Committee Meets /Changchun Radio] ...............ccc00. ssessesseesseeseeeeeeeeeees 57 Jilin Becomes Major Marketable Grain Producer /XINHUA] ..........cccccccccccccssssseesseeeeseessenseeeeeseeees 58 stem Reval Enterprises Develop “Rapedty” [AINTIUA) ....10....scccccssccsssosccsssssssessscsscssssnesssssscssosscsseseoess 58 Jilin Promotes Restructuring of Enterprises /XINHUA] .0..........cccccccsccscssccee sessseesssseesssesessseeeeeeseseeess 59 Quan Shuren Attends Young Plant Directors’ Forum /Shenyang Radio] ............cccccscecseeeseeeseeeees 59 Liaoning’s Economic Tasks for 1991 Reported /Shenyang Radio] ............0.cccccccccceseeseeetecnesseeeneeeeees 60

Northwest Region

Gu Jinchi Addresses Plenum on 10-Year Program = /Lanzhou RAdi0] ..............ccccccsceesseseeeseeeseeeseeeees 60 Ningxia Meeting Discusses Agricultural Development /NINGXIA RIBAO 23 Dec] .occcccccccccccceee 61 Qinghai Reports on Local Economic Development /Xining RAdIO] ..............ccccccccsccsscesecesseeeeeeeeeenees 62 Qinghai Cites Industrial, Foreign Trade Results /Ximing Radi] ...........cccccccccececsseesseeteesseeseeeeeeeeeeenes 62 Zhang Boxing Reports to Shaanxi Party Plenum = /NXian RAO} o..........cccccccccececeesseesseeeseeeseeeesetseeeeeees 62 Xinjiang Discipline Commission Holds Plenum = /Ururmgi RAdiI0] ...........cccccccccccseesseesseesseeeseseeeeeeneees 64 Xinjiang Advisory Committee Convenes Plenum [Urumqi Radio] ............ccccccccccceseesseessecenseneeeennenes 64 Large Mineral Deposits Discovered in Xinjiang /XINHUA] .o.c...ccccccccccccccccceccsseeeeseeeeeeenseeeeeeeeenenees 64

HONG KONG & MACAO

Hong Kong Li Peng, Hong Kong Governor Hold ‘Serious’ Talks /XINHUA] oo.ccccccccccccccccsecessscesseeeeeseeeeeeeeneees 66 Differences Said ‘Unresolved’ /SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST 24 Jan] .occccccccccccccccceeeees 66 Article on Deng ‘Attacks,’ Governor's PRC Visit /KUANG CHIAO CHING 16 Jan] .....ccccc000000000 67

‘Leading Activists’ Win Appeal Against Sentences /SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST 19 Jan] ... 71

FBIS-CHI-91-016 24 January 1991

General

Foreign Ministry Holds Weekly News Briefing

Spokesman Views Gulf Situation

OW 2401090291 Beijing XINHUA in English 0855 GMT 24 Jan 91

[Text] Beijing, January 24 (XINHUA) —China today voiced appreciation of the on-going efforts by a number of countries for a peaceful resolution of the Gulf conflict.

A Foreign Ministry spokesman said at a weekly news briefing that some countries are exploring various ways for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, as the Gulf war has been going on for more than a week and threatens to further expand.

“Such efforts are commendable,” Spokesman Li Zha- oxing said. “And this reflects the kindhearted wish of the international community who does not want to see the people in the Middle East suffering greater losses.”

Li was answering a XINHUA correspondent’s question on what China is going to do to end the war and on the Chinese Government’s attitude towards the peace initi- atives from Algeria, India and some other countries.

He said, “Since the very beginning, we've been opposed to the Iraqi invasion and annexation of Kuwait and called on Iraq to withdraw its troops from Kuwait immediately and unconditionally.”

He added, “We've all along maintained that all efforts should be made for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Gulf.”

He said, “We are extremely concerned over the possible escalation of the war and we urge the two belligerent parties to exercise the maximum restraint to prevent the war from spreading and expanding, so as to create the necessary conditions for the efforts to find a peaceful solution.”

Li said, China has gone to great lengths in seeking a peaceful settlement of the Gulf conflict both inside and outside the United Nations, along with the international community, “and this is known to everybody.”

China will, together with the international community, continue to make unremitting efforts in this regard, he said.

Li, responding to a foreign correspondent’s question, said China and the Soviet Union have maintained con- tacts ever since the eruption of the Gulf crisis, and both countries share the willingness to make continued efforts towards a peaceful solution of the conflict.

Asked to comment on reports that Iraq has sent pris- oners of war from the U.S. side to strategic targets of the U.S.-led multinational forces, Li said “the Geneva Con- vention on the treatment of prisoners of war should be observed.”

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 1

Discusses Conflict

HK2401110691 Hong Kong AFP in English 1048 GMT 24 Jan 91

[Text] Beijing, Jan 24 (AFP)}—China called Thursday on both sides in the Gulf war to show “maximum restraint,” saying it was extremely concerned at a possible escala- tion of the war.

“Since the very beginning, we have been opposed to the Iraqi invasion and annexation of Kuwait,” foreign min- istry spokesman Li Zhaoxing told a weekly news confer- ence here.

“We have all along maintained that all efforts should be made for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Gulf,” Mr Li said.

“We are extremely concerned over the possible escala- tion of the war and we urged the two belligerent parties to exercise the maximum restraint,” he said.

Mr Li did not give details, but observers said he was referring to possible Israeli retaliation for Iraqi Scud missile attacks on its territory.

He also implicitly confirmed information from a Soviet source here that Chinese Prime Minister Li Peng ha. written to Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev saying both countries should coordinate their similar stances on the issue.

“Since the beginning, China and the Soviet Union have maintained contacts on the question of the Gulf,” he said.

Asked about the American and other coalition prisoners in Iraq, Mr Li said only that the Geneva Convention on the treatment of prisoners of war should be respected.

Iraq has been condemned internationally for displaying downed allied pilots on television and sayir_ it would deploy them at potential bombing targets to deter attack.

Asked about the attitude to the Gulf conflict of the some 17 million Chinese Moslems, he said: “*Various nation- alities in China support the Chinese government.”

Says Muslims Support Gulf Stance HK 2401130091 Beijing ZHONGGUO XINWEN SHE in Chinese 1150 GMT 24 Jan 91

[Report: “Li Zhaoxing Talks About the Gulf War’— ZHONGGUO XINWEN SHE headline]

[Text] Beijing, 24 Jan(ZHONGGUO XINWEN SHE)— China is extremely concerned over the possible escala- tion of the Gulf war. Foreign Ministry spokesman Li Zhaoxing today urged the two belligerent parties to exercise Maximum restraint to prevent the war from spreading and expanding, so as to create the necessary conditions for the efforts to find a peaceful solution.

2 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

The Gulf war has lasted for more than a week and threatens to further expand, Li Zhaoxing said. Some countries have explored various ways for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Such efforts are commendable because they reflect the kindhearted wish of the interna- tional community, which does not want to see the people in the Middle East suffering greater losses.

Li continued that China has been opposed to the Iraqi invasion and annexation of Kuwait from the very begin- ning, calling on Irag to withdraw its troops from Kuwait immediately and unconditionally. We have all along maintained that all efforts should be made for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Gulf.

In response to a question on whether Chinese Muslims backed Iraq, Li stressed that China’s various nationali- ties support the government's position on the Gulf issue.

The spokesman also disclosed that China and the Soviet Union have maintained contacts ever since the eruption of the Gulf crisis, and that both countries share a willingness to make continued efforts, with the interna- tional community, toward a peaceful solution of the conflict.

Responding to a reporter's question, Li said that the belligerent parties should observe the Geneva Conven- tion on the treatment of prisoners of war.

Reiterates Sino-British Joint Terms

HK240115359] Beijing ZHONGGUO XINWEN SHE in Chinese 1150 GMT 24 Jan 91

{Report: “China Has Always Acted in Strict Accordance With the Sino-British Joint Declaration’ — ZHONGGUO XINWEN SHE headline]

[Text] Beijing, 24 Jan( ZHONGGUO XINWEN SHE)}— Foreign Ministry spokesman Li Zhaoxing said today in answering a Hong Kong reporter's question that the Chinese Government has always abided by the Sino- British Joint Declaration concerning the Hong Kong problem and worked for Hong Kong's stability and prosperity and a smooth 1997 transition in strict accor- dance with the terms of the joint declaration.

At today’s news conference, a Hong Kong reporter, quoting Chinese Vice Premier Wu Xuegian’s remark that only the Chinese Government could speak for the Hong Kong people, asked the spokesman if there was any comment on this from the Foreign Ministry.

Li Zhaoxing said the Sino-British Joint Declaration explicitly lays down that when Hong Kong enters the latter stages of the transition, the Chinese and British sides must examine and study measures to be adopted for a smooth transition in 1997 through the Sino-British Joint Liaison Group. The joint declaration also lays down that should the liaison group fail to achieve agreement, matters should be handed over to the Chi- nese and British Governments to be resolved through consultation.

FBIS-CHI-91-016 24 January 1991

Article Evaluates PRC Role in Gulf Crisis

HK2301100891 Hong Kong WEN WEI PO in Chinese 23 Jan 91 p 2

[Special article’ by WEN WEI PO Beijing-based reporter Chen Chien-ping (7115 1696 1627): “The Gulf War and China’s Mediation” }

[Text]

War Is Hard To Avoid

All sorts of international political information come together and are disseminated in Being, the capital of a world power. Through this information coming from all directions, people are provided with source materials for thought on this war and also know Betjing’s basic posi- tion on and attitude toward this war from this.

Before the outbreak of the Gulf war, the basic judgment of the people here was that war was hard to avoid and were not surprised the war eventually broke out. The basis for their judgment was that as far as the United States was concerned, its pre-war deployment in the Gulf was the posture of determination to fight to solve the problem. Viewed historically, the United States contin- uously and finally threw troops of 540,000 men into the Korean War in those years; however, the number of soldiers in the Gulf this time reached 400,000. Further- more, there ts a special feature of the U.S. troops’ operations conducted abread, which is as long as the number of aircraft carriers reaches one-third, hostilities will open. Before 15 January, the number of the U.S. aircraft carriers massed in the Gulf had already exceeded one-third. [as published]

Tit for Tat is Given Before the War

If we say that military deployment could only prove that the United States was prepared to fight, Iraqi provoca- tion against the United States was a factor to aggravate the war. For instance, a letter from President Bush to Saddam Husayn on 15 January met with refusal. According to a senior official of the U.S. Embassy here, as a power that holds the balance in the international affairs, the United States was insulted for the first time since the beginning of history. In addition, the U.S. Congress just adopted a resolution empowering the U.S. President, and the Iraqi National Assembly passed a resolution supporting Saddam's decision not to with- draw troops from Kuwait. In the opinion of the U.S. Congress, such a spearhead directed toward each other was not less than the declaration of war to Congress. As the time limit approached, Saddam frequently uttered words that the United States could hardly tolerate and that especially pulled the scab right off the U.S. sore. For example, Saddam said that he wanted to be al-Nasir (former president of Egypt and anti-U.S. national hero) the Second; Saddam threatened that because the United States lost in the Korean War and was defeated on the Vietnamese battlefield again, there was no reason why it could win against Iraq.

FBIS-CHI-91-016 24 January 1991

The United States wanted to fight because, except for provocation, it was under other pressure. According to information in diplomatic circles here, some large U.S. financial groups are resolutely supporting the war, and Israeli influences also want to fight: the states of the United States abounding in petroleum, like Texas, want to fight because they can earn $44 million more in fighting each day and will give this money to support the troops stationed in the Gulf.... Diplomatic circles say the Unite! States 1s noi worried about the oil fields damaged by the Gulf war. It is the U.S.” consideration that the United States does not fear that the oil fields are dam- aged. Only the facilities on the ground, other than the underground oil, are damaged. Even if things on the ground are smashed, as long as the Gulf countries take out a portion of the deposits abroad and the United States uses its technology, production can be resumed very quickly. From the angle of petroleum production, therefore, they are not afraid of fighting. Such a consid- eration has played a very grea’ part in helping the White House make the decision to fight.

Saddam Cannot Retreat

Under the abovementioned various factors, it was said that the United States considered giving Iraq three days’ grace period after the expiration of the deadline on 15 January, but finally could not restrain itself.

On Iraq's side, 1t seemed that Iraq decided to accept the fact of war. Diplomatic circles say that Saddam expressed that he had no way to withdraw troops from Kuwait and if he withdrew troops from Kuwait, he could consolidate his position at home. Saddam said that it was a mistake that he made a compromise with Iran. He originally thought that he could win over Iran by releasing war prisoners and ceding territory so that there was a larger area for activities; however, the actual result was not so, resulting in a big drop in his prestige at home. The withdrawal of troops is, therefore, possibly condi- tional on the secession of two islands from Kuwait, some profits from petroleum, liquidation of debts, and an aid of $60 billion from rich Gulf countries to help Iraq rebuild its homeland. It was learned that Beijing had given the advice that, Iraq should not ask for exorbitant prices, nor should it overestimate itself. Advice is one thing and whether Saddam foliowed or not 1s another.

Iraq Has Four Aces up Its Sleeve

Diplomatic circles say Saddam's statements reveal his disposition. He said: | know Americans want to blow me up, and I will not wear a military uniform but put on civilian clothes. The Americans know that I have 72 points, but | do not go to these 72 places. [as published] Even if I were blown up, I would rather die than retreat. I have assigned several successors. The long list of names includes the ambassador of Iraq to Geneva—half brother born of the same father but different mother....

Saddam holds that he dares to confront the multina- tional joint troops headed by the United States because

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 3

he has four aces up his sleeves: |) Iraq possesses 1,160 chemical weapons spread over 72 launching sites and loaded in the warheads of 2,500 guided missiles. There are many Scud missiles with a range of 300 to 500 km, which can hit Israel. Iraqi poisonous gas bombs can make a region uninhabitable for 30 to 70 years. 2) Attacks will be launched on Israel. Where necessary, the chemical weapons, 500 planes kept underground, and Scud missiles will all be used to attack Israel to blow up the whole country, but not the other places. 3) Peace slogans are put up, demanding that the Middle East questions be solved all together, a state of Palestine be founded, and a Middle East peace conference be held. Moreover, should Iraq attack Israel, once Israel were involved, it would cause the Arab countries to oppose them. 4) Iraq still has the support of some countries, and they will give it a helping hand at the crucial moment.

Diplomatic circles say the Gulf situation is now tense and many Chinese-type terms and slang expressions are coming into vogue. While Saddam talked about the last move of Iraq, he said: In China, Kongming borrowed the east wind to burn a chain of ships. At that time, I| will pour petroleum into the Gulf and borrow the north wind to burn the Gulf so that it is turned intu a sea of fire. While the United States was dwelling on requesting Israel to exercise restraint, it quoted the words of Mao Zedong, the late Chinese leader—“we will not attack unless we are attacked: if we are attacked, we will certainly counterattack.” The United States requested that Israel abide by the first eight words, and told them, “if you are attacked,” the latter part of the quotation must absolutely not be followed.

The Gulf war has already broken out, and the appraisal of the people here is that it cannot be called a war for justice, and it cannot simply be regarded as a war against aggression. This war is surely not a war of aggression. This is a war for the interests of the United States, a war contending for hegemony over petroleum, and a war between world hegemonism and regional hegemonism.

Editorial Urges Immediate Peace Efforts HK2401082591 Hong Kong TA KUNG PAO in Chinese 24 Jan YI p2

{Editorial: “Mediating Peace in the Gulf Brooks No Delay!"}

[Text] If the Gulf situation deteriorates further, the danger this will bring to the entire world cannot be overlooked. Even if the U.S.-led allied forces score a military victory, the consequences for peace in the Middle East, the world economy, and the global envi- ronment would be difficult to deal with. At the moment, some Islamic, Arab, and nonaligned states have again taken action and have called for the realization of peace as a most urgent task. Each and every country, especially from the Third World, should speak out and join efforts to promote peace in the Gulf. There can be no shirking this responsibility.

4 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

Both Iran and India have called on the Arab world and the Third World to come out and try to stop a deterio- ration in the Gulf situation. On the other ham * Africa’s Morocco has raised the possibility of rea.

peace with those north African states that are part of the multinational allied forces. Morocco’s King Hassan pro- posed that Iraqi troops first withdraw from Kuwait and then a peacekeeping force. organized by the norih African Arab states, would be stationed in Kuwait. Egypt has already sent Foreign Minister ‘Abd al-Mayid to Syria while Information Minister al-Sharif went to Libya in a bid to link up with these countries in formulating a resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire. Iran has also discussed new programs for peace in the Gulf with India, Yugoslavia, Algeria, and other nonaligned states.

Time is running out. If large-scale ground fighting erupts in Kuwait, it may all be too late. but if the current situation is allowed to deteriorate, two major tragedies could occur—hence, an all-out effort is needed to salvage the situation.

First of all, Iraq’s 17 million population is facing a devastating blow. Allied bombing over the past seven days has totaled more than 10,000 sorties, while the scope of the bombing has gradually widened to include civilian targets. Supplies of water, electricity, food, and medicine in Iraq, as well as the transportation network, have been completely paralyzed. Even if they are not killed by bombs, a large number of people will die of hunger or from lack of medical attention. Saddam will not give the real figures regarding civilian casualties and economic losses caused by the bombing. Also subjected to news censorship are U.S. news agencies that make no mention of civilian losses caused by U.S. air assaults. Unfortunately, the people of Iraq are facing death everyday. How can the countries of the world sit by idly”

Once the multinational forces enter Kuwait, fighting between the two sides will inevitably lead to high casu- alties. It is hard to imagine that more than | million soldiers are fighting it out in the tiny desert country of Kuwait, with an area of just 15,500 square km. Having totally lost air power and facing depleted logistics, the Iraqi forces will definitely resort to the use of chemical weapons. These poison gases manufactured by Ger- many’s most advanced chemical enterprises are even deadlier than the chemical weapons used in the last two world wars. If the multinational forces are attacked with these chemical weapons, the United States and Britain have already warned: “All necessary measures will be used to carry out unrestricted retaliation.” Clamor for use of nuclear weapons has already occurred. Just think what terrifying devastation this catastrophe could bring to Kuwait, Iraq, and all of the Middle East.

Another frightening outcome is the blowing up of Kuwaiti oil fields as well as the destruction of oil fields in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states by missiles as ordered by Saddam. Western scientists have repeatedly warned: If fighting in the Gulf leads to blowing up and burning ihe oil fields, the heavy smoke alone would cover 100

FBIS-CHI-91-016 24 January 1991

million square km—equivalent to one-fifth of the earth's surface. It could cause several millions of people in India and Southeast Asia to die from drought and starvation. The fires in the oil fields could burn for from six to 12 months, causing incalculabie damage to the earth's envi- ronment. The oi! wells and oi] Gepots in | uwait have already been destroyed by Iraqi troops. Suc . indiscrim- inate destruction of the environment should be stopped.

At the nioment, another source for escalation of the war is Israel. After the continuous attacks on Tel Aviv, Shamir’s cabinet has already stated that Israel's relatia- tion will not be carried out by the United States. Once Israel formally mak: < a move, its attack on Iraq will be more devastating than the handful of Scud mussiles launched by Iraq. Other Arab states may be dragged into the war, and total war between the Arabs on one side and the United States and the Jewish people on the other would be inevitable.

As the aggressor who invaded Kuwait, Saddam, this little hegemonist, should be punished severely. The numerous resolutions by the Security Council were correct; how- ever, as events develop to this day, the allied forces headed by the United States and Britain should not force Saddam into a corner, being fully aware of the fright- ening consequences cited above. In particular, the United States has been using Iraq and Kuwait as a testing ground for its new scientific and technological weaponry and has mobilized more fighter planes and missiles than it did during the Vietnam war. It wants to demoralize the people of Iraq with extreme death threats. In effect, this is a repeat of the Vietnam war.

The United States has already admitted that a quick war is not possible. It should immediately stop the heavy bombardment, as well as the ground assault on Kuwait, and let the international community once again Carry out mediation and strive for a peaceful withdrawal of Iraqi troops. It should be said that since fighting started a week ago, Saddam, after suffering heavy blows, now knows the determination of the multinational troops to force him out of Kuwait. As long as face-saving terms are given, Iraq will very likely change its previous stance. It should be noted that even if a cease-fire 1s declared now, Iraq has already been sapped of much of its vitality.

If President Bush refuses to change his mind and insists on escalating the war, there can be no guarantee of the supply of oil. Meanwhile, various consequences would haunt the United States for a long while, the impact of which would be far greater than that of the Vietnam war. This is worth pondering upon!

Embassy Area in Beijing Heavily Guarded

HK2401040091 Hong Kong WEN WEI PO in Chinese 24 Jan 91 p 3

[Report By WEN WEI PO Beiing-based correspondent Chen Chien-ping (7115 1696 1627): “Embassy Area in Beijing Is Stull Heavily Guarded”]

FBIS-CHI-91-016 24 January 199)

[Text] Beijing, . 3 Jan (WEN WEI PO)}—Seveu days into the Gulf war now, and snow falls quietly in the city of Beijing; the streets are almost empty, and the scene ts more peaceful.

The higher learning institutes here are quiet, and not a single protest against war has ever taken place. According to an informed source, some students have asked for permission to take to the streets for a proces- sion against the war, but they have not gotten the permission. This reporter approached the department concerned for a verification of the information, and the reply was that for the sake of maintaining a stable and united social situation, such a procession could hardly be allowed. The students are still concerned about the Gulf war, and they have even moved television sets into classrooms to let everybody watch. An absolute majority of the students whom this reporter talked to thought that war was inevitable in such a situation. They thought that China's stand mentioned by the spokesman of the Min- istry of Foreign Affairs was sound and positive. one which can represent the interest and stand of the Third World. Some students said some Muslim students were relatively depressed because they thought that the war has caused sufferings for their compatriots. They do not oppose the United States, and they also think that Iraq's aggression is wrong and has violated Islamic doctrine itself, but war was nevertheless a bad thing.

As of today, various organs have slightly changed their way of attending to the Gulf war. Although many people still switch on their radios the whole day to listen to newscasts, many more turn to newspapers for more detailed reports and analyses, especially JIEFANGJUN BAO, ZHONGGUO QINGNIAN BAO, and CANKAO ZILIAO. In particular. JIEFANGJUN BAO recently carried some war analyses by military and defense experts, and people scrambled for the newspaper. ZHONGGUO QINGNIAN BAO started to carry reports on Iraq from today, while CANKAO ZILIAO used two-thirds of its space to report on the Gulf war.

The reporter contacted some experts who are responsible for research on and manufacture of missiles for the Ministry of Astronautics and Aeronautics Industry, and they felt a strong sense of urgency because of the Gulf war. They thought that the Gulf war proved that in a modern warfare, the one with beckward weapons will become passive and will receive blows. According to information, many experts have demanded that they be allowed to go to the grass-roots level to step up research efforts.

The embassy area here is stil! heavily guarded. The one-man sentry posts are now manned by two men. As night falls, security personnel are still patrolling. In recent days, however, nothing has happened in the embassy area.

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS §

Foreign Ministry Protests French Visit to Taiwan

HK240105 1091 Beying RENMIN RIBAO OVERSEAS EDITION in Chinese 24 Jan 91 p?

[“Dispatch™: “;RC Lodges Protest With the French Government Against French Industry Minister's Visit to Taiwan a Few Days Ago” }

[Text] Beijing, 23 Jan (XINHUA) —Today, a XINHUA reporter interviewed a spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the Chinese Government's attitude toward the visit to Tarwan by a delegation led by French Industry Minister Roger Fauroux not long ago.

The spokesman pointed out that Assistant Foreign Min- ister Jiang Enzhu had recently summoned upon instruc- tion Claude Martin, French ambassador to China, to the Foreign Ministry to lodge a protest with the French Government against the visit to Taiwan by a delegation led by Mr. Roger Fauroux, French industry minister. The Chinese side has on other occasions expressed its solemn position to the French side. The Chinese side emphatically points out that the wrong actions of the French side have violated the principles for the estab- lishment of diplomatic relations between China and France and contravened its commitment to the recogni- tion of one China. This is absolutely unacceptable to the Chinese side. The Chinese side demands that the French side strictly comply with the norms governing interna- tional relations and the principles for the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France, scru- pulously abide by its commitment to the recognition of one China, and guarantee against recurrence of such incidents in the future.

Article on Asia-Pacific Political Situation

HK2301015591 Hong Kong LIAOWANG OVERSEAS EDITION in Chinese No 2, 14 Jan 91 pp 31-31

[Article by Shi Min (0670 2404), deputy director of the Asia-Pacific Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: “An Improving Political Situation, but Worsening Economic Situation in the Asia-Pacific Region” }

[Text] What changes will the new year bring in the political and economic situation in the Asia-Pacific region? In my opinion, the political situation looks optimistic and will improve, but the economic situation iS pessimistic and is going to deteriorate. Viewed from the political situation, the trend of detente 1s continuing, despite sustained regional turbulence. This can be seen in two aspects—namely. the relations between the big powers and the situation in several regional hot spots.

As far as the relations between the big powers are concerned, the relations between the United States and the Soviet Unicon are developing from detente to coop- eration in both the political and economic fields. The confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union has become history. Sino-Soviet relations, after

5 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

normalization, remained stable this year. What 1s espe- cially encouraging is that both sides hope io maintain normal relations between states and do not want to see any disputes over ideological affairs. What is more, both sides wish each other domestic stability, each side real- izing that 'ne stability enjoyed by the other side will be beneficial to its own stability. Therefore, both sides are willing to further enhance their economic cooperation. Regarding U.S.-Chinese and Japanese-Chinese relations, Western countries have gradually relaxed their economic sanctions against China in 1990, and therefore, there is no reason why they would step up the sanctions in 1991. This does not mean they will give up sanctions com- pletely, however. Generally speaking, sanctions will not be intensified, but it is also not possible to restore such goo’ relations as before. Soviet-Japanese relations involve more trouble and are relatively tense. The two countries have disputes over the four northern islands. It appears that it would be difficult for them to settle the issue Concerning the four northern islands once and for all. Nevertheless, an awkward situation will arise if no progress is made in this regard by April 1991 when Gorbachev is to visit Japan. In my opinion, this problem will not be completely solved, but it is unlikely that it will stalemate, as some partial progress may be made. On the other hand, the economic conflict between the United States and Japan still remains, but since both sides have their own needs and are dependent on each other, their trade conflict will not deteriorate and become a promi- nent problem. This state of U.S.-Japanese relations will be maintained for quite a long period of time.

By anc large, there will not be any drastic changes leading io a deterioration in relations between the big powers. As long as the relations between big powers remain relatively stable, the Asia-Pacific region will remain stable, and this will help to solve problems related to regional hot spots. Regarding the hot spot problems, recently some progress has been made on the Cambodian issue, but some obstacles remain, and it is hoped that the issue will be solved in 1991. The issue concerning the Korean Peninsula is drawing more and more attention. The northern and southern parts of Korea have already held three rounds of talks at the premier level. The opening of talks between high ranking leaders is in itself of great significance. Although they are not likely to result in any major breakthrough in the near future, both sides have expressed their willingness to continue their talks. Perhaps their stands will become closer and closer in the wake of changes in the interna- tional situation as a whole, so that they will be able to find common ground and some progress will be made. Another subtle development is that it 1s very likely that a breakthrough will be made in the relations between Korea and Japan in 1991 or, to put it more precisely, the two countries may officially establish diplomatic ties. If they establish diplomatic ties, that would have an influ- ence on the seat for the northern and southern parts of Korea in the United Nations as well as on the future relations between China and other countries. This is a noteworthy new developing case. In South Asia, India

FBIS-CHIE-91-016 24 January 1991

and Pakistan are negotiating on the Kashmir question. This isr » likely to become big trouble, but 1 can hardly be resc:. d or ~* and for all. It 1s unlikely that any new and major... political conflict will spring up in the Asia-Pacific ,egion, and there is a great possibility that some partial! progress will be made.

In 1991, the economic situation in the Asia-Pacific region will deteriorate further as compared with 1990. The average economic growth in the East Asian region, including Japan, was merely five percent or so in 1990. This figure was lower than the record for 1989, and the expected growth for 1991 will be even lower for five reasons:

First of all, the economy of the West will be further weakened. The economy of the big powers in the Asia- Pacific region, such as the United States and Japan, will deteriorate. Whether the United States can recover from an economic recession in 1991 1s conditional on the Gulf crisis. If the Gulf crisis was solved peacefully, the US. economy would decline in the first half of this year, but would not necessarily suffer negative growth throughout the year. It may be zero or slight growth.

Japanese economic circles and economic research bodies hold that the economic recession in the West in 1991 wall have a tremendous impact on the economy of the Asia-Pacific region, and Japan's economic growth for the year will not be higher than three percent or, in my own opinion, below 3.5 percent. The “Four Little Dragons” enjoyed an average growth of six percent in 1990, which was lower than the ASEAN countries achieved. Among the ASEAN countries, Indonesia and Malaysia are oil exporters, while Thailand and the Philippines are oil importers. Although the economic recession of the West has an equal influence on every country, the Gulf crisis’ impact on Indonesia and Malaysia was lighter than on Taiwan and South Korea, or may even be somewhat beneficial to the former two countries as it helped raise their oil exports. Therefore, in 1990, the ASEAN coun- tries’ average economic growth was maintained at a level close to that for 1989. Among the ASEAN countries, Thailand had an economic growth slightly lower than the 1989 record, but it still managed to maintain a growth between nine and 10 percent. The Philippines suffered a relatively serious economic decline. As the Gulf crisis had most seriously affected the Philippines’ economy, its economic growth may have dropped from five percent in 1989 to 2.5 percent in 1990. The situation in Indonesia may be better than 1989 because its economic growth rose from around five to six percent. Malaysia's eco- nomic growth also increased from around eight percent in 1989 to around nine percent in 1990. Thailand and Malaysia would have ranked first and second in the world in terms of economic growth rate, however, the economic recession in the West in 1991 will seriously impact on these countries and areas. In 1991, the eco- nomic growth of the “Four Little Dragons” in Asia may drop to below five percent, and the ASEAN countries will hardly be able to maintain the growth they had enjoyed in 1990, and it will be very difficult for them to